Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected macroeconomic downturns
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:00:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
96%
ORYN Consensus
94%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 92-98
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Interactive Brokers' net interest income for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Interactive Brokers' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors 'Yes' for Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income exceeding $925M, with a 95% probability. This reflects strong confidence in IBKR's financial performance, likely driven by sustained interest rate environments or asset growth.
IBKR's Q2 net interest income could exceed $925M due to robust trading volumes, higher interest rates boosting net interest margins, and continued growth in customer deposits. Strong institutional client activity or expansion in margin lending may also contribute.
IBKR's net interest income might fall short of $925M if interest rates decline sharply, reducing net interest margins. Lower trading volumes or client outflows could also depress revenue, particularly if economic conditions weaken or competition intensifies.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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