Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: low_market_liquidity_and_participation
AI updated 6/30/2026, 12:45:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
25 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Hanwha Life Esports's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the Hanwha Life Esports Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Hanwha_Life_Esports) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: Zeus, Kanavi, Zeka, Gumayusi, and Delight. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a low probability (6.5%) of Hanwha Life Esports making a roster change before September 2026, suggesting minimal perceived volatility or urgency in team adjustments. The strict resolution criteria (48-hour validation, Liquipedia-based sourcing) reduce ambiguity but may limit market responsiveness to unofficial or rapid changes.
Hanwha Life Esports may undergo a roster change due to underperformance or strategic shifts, particularly if players like Zeusa or Gumayusi face pressure to improve. External factors such as player contract negotiations or team restructuring could force early adjustments. A mid-season slump could accelerate decisions, as teams often react swiftly to poor results.
The current roster may remain stable through September due to strong performance, contractual stability, or lack of urgent need for changes. Hanwha Life Esports might prioritize continuity, avoiding disruptions during critical tournaments. External factors like coaching stability or off-season timing could defer roster decisions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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