Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data unavailability (Pyth outage, requiring fallback to daily lows)
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 11:45:18 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
29%
ORYN Consensus
31%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,207,672
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 26-32
—
Resolution
30d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
18 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during July 2026, any 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hitting a $330 low in July 2026 reflects a 30.50% probability, indicating skepticism about the stock reaching such a low threshold during regular trading hours. The resolution relies on Pyth's 1-minute candle low prices, with a fallback to official daily lows in case of data unavailability.
GOOGL could hit $330 if macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed rate cuts) boost tech stocks, or if the company reports strong earnings growth, driving investor confidence. A sustained rally in AI-related sectors or a market-wide correction could also push the stock to these lows temporarily.
GOOGL may struggle to reach $330 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates) persist, or if regulatory challenges (e.g., antitrust actions) weigh on the stock. A broader tech sell-off or underperformance in Google Cloud/ads could exacerbate declines.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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