Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected QB acquisition (draft/signing)
Calibrated 100% · raw 8400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:15:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
89%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-84.0
Opportunity
77.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,073,491
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -8400.0¢
Entry: 86-92
—
Resolution
77d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve according to the player that is officially announced by the New York Jets to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event that no starting quarterback is officially announced by the team, this market will resolve in favor of the listed quarterback who takes the field on the listed team’s first offensive play. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the New York Jets’ Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback who first directly receives a snap in the game. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or the New York Jets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors Geno Smith as the Jets' Week 1 starting QB (89.50%), indicating high confidence in his retention as the starter. This reflects consistent organizational signals, Smith's recent performance, and the Jets' lack of significant QB-related roster changes.
Geno Smith's strong 2024-25 season (21 TDs, 9 INTs, 6.0 YPA) and familiarity with the Jets' offensive system under head coach Robert Saleh bolster his case. The team's minimal QB competition (e.g., no high-profile rookie drafted or free-agent signing) reduces the likelihood of a change. Smith's leadership and injury-free status in 2025 further support his continuity.
A surprise move by the Jets to draft a top QB prospect (e.g., a top-5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft) or sign a veteran free agent (e.g., a former Pro Bowler) could undercut Smith's starting role. Poor preseason performance or a mid-season coaching change could also prompt a QB switch. Off-field issues or contract disputes might erode management's confidence in Smith.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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