Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury crises before or during the tournament
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:00:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
14%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,788
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 11-16
—
Resolution
21d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which France is eliminated. If France wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If France is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by France based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (13.5%) that France will be eliminated in the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, suggesting strong market confidence in France's potential to reach or win the tournament.
France has historically strong football pedigree, including two World Cup wins (1998, 2018) and a runner-up finish in 2022. Their squad depth, tactical flexibility, and recent performances in major tournaments support their likelihood of advancing to the final.
France's path to the final could be disrupted by injuries to key players, tactical mismatches, or unexpected upsets by underdog teams. Recent World Cup tournaments have seen upsets (e.g., Morocco in 2022), increasing the risk of early elimination.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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