Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable chart algorithm changes by Billboard
Calibrated 100% · raw 1445% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:00:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
+14.4
Opportunity
10.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,218,028
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1445.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
9d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of July 11, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Olivia Rodrigo's 'Drop Dead' reaching Billboard Hot 100 #1 for the week of July 11, 2026, currently reflects a 19.60% probability. This low probability suggests skepticism about the song's sustained dominance given historical chart performance and competition.
'Drop Dead' could achieve #1 status due to strong streaming numbers, radio play, or viral social media trends in the weeks leading up to July 11, 2026. Olivia Rodrigo's established fanbase and prior chart-toppers like 'Drivers License' may provide momentum.
The song may struggle to maintain #1 due to rising competition from new releases, seasonal chart fluctuations (e.g., holiday-week impacts), or declining streaming metrics. Olivia Rodrigo's follow-up singles often face stiff competition from established and emerging artists.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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