Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable behavior due to legal troubles
AI updated 7/1/2026, 3:45:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
16%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,231,832
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 15.5% probability that Donald Trump will publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026, based on historical patterns of his public statements. The low probability reflects his recent subdued rhetoric but does not account for potential unpredictable events.
Trump may abstain from public insults due to legal or personal constraints, maintaining a more measured public tone. His focus on policy or electoral strategy could reduce provocative rhetoric. A stable political environment might further discourage negative public statements.
Historical data shows Trump frequently resorts to public insults during high-stress periods, such as election cycles or legal challenges. A controversial event or perceived slight could trigger a retaliatory insult. His unpredictable nature and social media presence make such behavior likely if provoked.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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