Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Legal or regulatory actions limiting public statements
AI updated 7/1/2026, 10:00:24 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
91%
ORYN Consensus
90%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 88-94
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 90% probability that Donald Trump will publicly insult someone on July 31, 2026, reflecting his historical behavior of frequent public insults. The high probability is consistent with his past patterns of engaging in personal attacks, particularly in media appearances or social media posts.
Trump's history of impulsive and inflammatory rhetoric, especially during election cycles or contentious periods, increases the likelihood of a public insult. His use of social media platforms, where direct engagement with critics or opponents is common, further supports this outcome.
If Trump moderates his public behavior due to legal constraints, political strategy, or personal discipline, the probability of a public insult could decline. Shifts in his communication approach, such as focusing on policy over personal attacks, might reduce the likelihood of resolution to 'Yes'.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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