Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Ambiguity in defining 'dancing' vs. incidental movement
Calibrated 100% · raw 3600% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:33:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-36.0
Opportunity
27.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3600.0¢
Entry: 43-49
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Donald Trump dancing on June 27, 2026, stands at 44.50%, indicating a near-even split in expectations. The resolution hinges on verifiable video evidence of rhythmic body movement, excluding incidental gestures or pre-recorded footage.
Trump may dance to appeal to younger voters or as a symbolic gesture during a campaign event, leveraging his public persona for viral engagement. His past appearances on shows like 'Saturday Night Live' suggest he is capable of playful, rhythmic movement. High-profile events could incentivize a performance.
Trump’s age (79 in 2024) and public persona may deter deliberate dancing, as it could be perceived as undignified or inconsistent with his political brand. Security and campaign logistics may prioritize formal events over spontaneous or performative actions. Lack of video evidence would resolve the market negatively.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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