Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Macroeconomic downturn reducing discretionary travel
Calibrated 100% · raw 2200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:02:01 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
+22.0
Opportunity
15.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile being within a narrow range may be related to the overall stability of the airline industry, which could impact the likelihood of Manifund's loan to @MarcusAbramovitch's crypto fund being repaid without incident. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin, as seen in the referenced markets, may be influenced by broader market trends, which could also impact the airline industry and its revenue. The relationships between these markets are:
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 2200.0¢
Entry: 23-29
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to Delta's announced passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The company trades under the ticker DAL as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Delta's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a near-even probability (47.5%) that Delta's Q2 PRASM will fall between 18-19 cents, reflecting uncertainty in demand recovery and cost pressures. The metric's resolution hinges on Delta's official earnings disclosure, with no external adjustments permitted.
Delta's PRASM could exceed 18 cents due to sustained pent-up demand, strong corporate travel recovery, and disciplined capacity management. Higher load factors and yield improvements from premium cabin demand may offset cost pressures, pushing PRASM toward the upper end of the range.
PRASM may fall below 18 cents if demand weakens due to economic headwinds, fuel price volatility, or competitive pricing pressure. Overcapacity in domestic markets or weaker-than-expected international travel could compress yields, dragging PRASM toward the lower end.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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