Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Event cancellation or delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 1750% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:30:44 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
-17.5
Opportunity
13.1
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1750.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Constellation Brands currently scheduled to take place on July 1, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 39.50% probability that Constellation Brands will mention the word 'Shipment' during its earnings call on July 1, 2026. The market is neutral but leans slightly bearish given the low probability.
Constellation Brands may emphasize 'Shipment' to highlight supply chain efficiency or logistical improvements, particularly if they are expanding into new markets or ramping up production. A strong focus on distribution could drive revenue growth, justifying the term's inclusion.
The company may avoid mentioning 'Shipment' if its earnings call focuses on financial performance, brand strategy, or other operational metrics unrelated to logistics. Market consolidation or reduced emphasis on supply chain may also minimize the term's relevance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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