Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific manipulation risks on Bybit
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 2:00:52 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
41%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
3.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,745,972
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 450.0¢
Entry: 38-44
—
Resolution
185d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Bybit 1-minute candle for Cap (CAP/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is Bybit, specifically the CAP/USDT “High” and "Low" prices available at: https://www.bybit.com/en/trade/spot/CAP/USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Bybit CAP/USDT price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Cap (CAP/USDT) prediction market indicates a 40.50% probability of the token reaching $0.04 by 2027, with resolution dependent on Bybit 1-minute candle highs or lows. The market's outcome hinges on short-term price volatility and exchange-specific liquidity conditions.
Cap could reach $0.04 if AI-related token demand surges due to breakthroughs in decentralized AI infrastructure or partnerships with major tech firms. High-frequency trading or speculative pumps on Bybit may trigger the threshold via extreme 1-minute candle highs.
Cap may fail to reach $0.04 if broader crypto market downturns or regulatory crackdowns suppress AI token valuations. Low liquidity on Bybit could also prevent the price from sustaining the required high/low levels, even during volatility spikes.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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