Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Historical underperformance in World Cup tournaments
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:45:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -25.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
58 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Canada is eliminated. If Canada wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Canada is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Canada based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 1.40% probability to Canada being eliminated in the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Historically, Canada has not advanced past the group stage in prior World Cups, making this a low-probability outcome.
Canada's bull case hinges on a strong squad development under interim coach Mauro Biello, improved defensive stability, and key player breakthroughs (e.g., Jonathan David, Alphonso Davies) elevating performance. A favorable draw in the group stage and tactical adaptability could propel Canada to unexpected success, including a semifinal run.
Canada's bear case is rooted in historical underperformance, with only two World Cup appearances (1986, 2022) and no progress beyond the group stage. Structural weaknesses in midfield creativity, defensive vulnerabilities, and lack of depth in high-pressure scenarios make a semifinal exit likely, if not elimination earlier.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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