Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution ambiguity
AI updated 6/29/2026, 6:45:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,448
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 9-15
—
Resolution
184d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
Bryan Johnson recently made public his relationship with co-founder Kate Tolo (https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1995953490930401334). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bryan Johnson proposes to Kate Tolo by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it is definitively determined that Bryan Johnson and Kate Tolo have ended their romantic relationship within the stated timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be photo or video of the proposal, or official statements of Bryan Johnson, Kate Tolo, or their legal representatives, otherwise a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (11.9%) that Bryan Johnson will propose to his co-founder Kate Tolo before 2027. Public engagement with the relationship is recent, and no concrete steps toward marriage have been announced.
Bryan Johnson’s public acknowledgment of the relationship and his high-profile status could accelerate a proposal timeline. If the couple’s relationship is strong and public, a proposal before 2027 becomes plausible, especially given Johnson’s openness about personal matters.
Public relationships do not always lead to marriage, and Johnson’s focus on his ventures (e.g., Kernel) may delay personal milestones. If the relationship sours or remains informal, the market’s
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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