Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Competition from established French strikers
Calibrated 100% · raw 495% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:50 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
4.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 495.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Bradley Barcola has a negligible probability of being the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup due to his current role as a winger with limited goal-scoring records in senior competitions. His market probability of 0.05% reflects the high competitiveness of the tournament and the dominance of established strikers.
Barcola could emerge as the top scorer if he secures a starting role for France, benefits from a favorable group stage, and capitalizes on injuries to key forwards. A breakthrough season in Ligue 1 or Champions League could also boost his chances.
Barcola's lack of recent goal-scoring pedigree and France's depth in attacking positions (Mbappé, Griezmann, etc.) severely limit his prospects. France's tactical reliance on wingers rather than pure strikers further reduces his likelihood of leading in goals.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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