Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential decline in Messi's performance or retirement
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:15:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,788
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
21d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Argentina is eliminated. If Argentina wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Argentina is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Argentina based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 11% probability to Argentina being eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This suggests a low but non-negligible chance of an early exit, reflecting Argentina's strong recent performance and historical resilience in tournaments.
Argentina's recent success, including winning the 2022 FIFA World Cup and 2024 Copa América, suggests they are a top-tier team with deep squad talent and tactical flexibility. Their ability to perform under pressure in knockout stages further supports a bullish outlook for advancing beyond the Round of 16.
Historical precedent shows even elite teams can underperform in early knockout stages due to injuries, fatigue, or tactical mismatches. Argentina's reliance on star players like Messi (if still active) could pose a risk if key personnel underperform or face suspension in critical matches.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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