Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable script changes in post-production
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:31:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,950
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Episode 3 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on July 5, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by July 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 50% probability that the phrase 'Sorry' will be spoken during the specified episode of *House of the Dragon* Season 3. Given the show's dialogue-driven narrative, the term is likely to appear, but the resolution is uncertain.
The phrase 'Sorry' is a common conversational term, especially in political intrigue and familial conflicts, which are central to *House of the Dragon*. Given the show's emphasis on verbal confrontations and apologies (e.g., 'I beg your pardon'), the likelihood of the term being used is high.
The term 'Sorry' may not appear if the episode's dialogue avoids explicit apologies or regrets. Given the show's focus on power dynamics and ruthlessness, characters may opt for more formal or aggressive language instead of colloquial apologies.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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