Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Censorship of brand mentions in aired episodes
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:04:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
47%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
37 points
Episode 27 of Love Island USA Season 8 is scheduled to air on July 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of Love Island USA. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this episode of Love Island USA has not been released in its entirety by July 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of Love Island USA. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market on whether 'Insta' or 'Instagram' will be mentioned in Love Island USA E27 (airing July 3, 2026) is evenly split at 50%, reflecting uncertainty about contestants' social media engagement during the episode.
Contestants may casually reference Instagram ('Insta') for social media challenges, updates, or to promote their profiles, especially if the episode includes a 'recoupling' or 'fantasy suite' segment where such interactions are common.
The episode may focus on in-villa interactions without external references, or contestants could avoid mentioning Instagram to maintain privacy or due to lack of relevance in the episode's narrative.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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