Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential changes in episode content due to production delays
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:31:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,139,044
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Episode 3 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on July 5, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by July 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 'Will anyone say "Funeral" during House of the Dragon E3 S3?' currently stands at 50%, indicating a balanced expectation with no clear consensus on whether the term will be spoken in the specified episode airing July 5, 2026.
The term 'Funeral' is likely to be spoken in the episode due to the ongoing political and familial strife in House of the Dragon, which often involves death and funerary rites as narrative devices. Given the show's history of using such terms in pivotal moments, the probability of the term being spoken is non-trivial.
The term 'Funeral' may not be spoken in the episode if the narrative focus shifts away from death-related themes or if the episode's events are resolved without requiring the use of the specific term. The show has occasionally avoided such language in certain episodes.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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