Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Episode release delays or cancellations
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:31:32 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,118,347
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Episode 3 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on July 5, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by July 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for whether the word 'Dinner' will be spoken in House of the Dragon S3E3 has a 50% probability, indicating balanced uncertainty. The outcome hinges on dialogue in the episode, scheduled for July 5, 2026.
The word 'Dinner' is likely to be spoken due to frequent meal-related scenes in Game of Thrones lore, where characters often reference meals as social or political settings. The inclusion of such dialogue could reflect cultural norms of the fictional world.
The term 'Dinner' may not be spoken if the episode focuses on other themes, such as battles or political intrigue, reducing the likelihood of casual dialogue. The episode's pacing or narrative direction could omit meal-related references entirely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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