Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Episode release delay or cancellation
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:31:37 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,950
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Episode 3 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on July 5, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by July 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for whether the word 'Castle' is spoken in House of the Dragon S3E3 is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to the episode's future release and subjective interpretation of dialogue. The outcome hinges on the exact phrasing and context of conversations in the episode.
The word 'Castle' is likely to appear in S3E3 given the show's medieval setting, frequent references to strongholds, and dialogue patterns from previous seasons. High fantasy elements often include castle terminology, increasing the probability of resolution to 'Yes'.
The absence of 'Castle' in S3E3 is plausible if the episode's plot focuses narrowly on non-castle themes (e.g., political intrigue, battles, or character development) without requiring the term. Previous seasons rarely used the exact word, suggesting low likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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