Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory or legal challenges affecting short-term rentals or ABNB operations
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:45:43 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
55%
ORYN Consensus
55%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,542,945
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 52-58
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the week of June 29 2026, any 1-minute candle for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hitting a low of $142 during the week of June 29, 2026, shows a 54.50% probability of resolution. The outcome depends on intraday volatility during regular trading hours, with historical trends and seasonal factors influencing the likelihood.
ABNB could hit $142 low if macroeconomic conditions improve, travel demand remains robust, or external shocks (e.g., competitor performance) drive temporary price drops. Strong earnings or guidance in late 2025/early 2026 may also boost short-term volatility, increasing the chance of a low print at or below the target.
ABNB may fail to reach $142 low if the broader market or sector faces downturns, regulatory pressures escalate, or company-specific risks (e.g., earnings miss, operational challenges) suppress stock price. High liquidity and strong investor confidence could limit downside volatility.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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