Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data finalization delays or revisions by IMF Portwatch
Calibrated 100% · raw 4300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:46:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+43.0
Opportunity
27.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4300.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 29, 2026, through July 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Strait of Hormuz transits (June 29-July 5, 2026) is neutral at 50%, reflecting balanced uncertainty between geopolitical risks and operational shipping trends. The resolution hinges on finalized IMF Portwatch data, which may introduce delays or revisions.
A bullish outcome (125-149 transits) could result from stable regional security conditions, increased OPEC+ oil shipments, or seasonal demand surges. Reduced Houthi/piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb may also facilitate smoother transit flows.
A bearish outcome (<125 transits) may stem from heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran-Israel escalation, Houthi attacks), sanctions-induced rerouting, or adverse weather disrupting maritime operations. Lower oil prices could also reduce tanker traffic.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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