Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: X platform instability or tracker failure
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:00:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,201,963
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 25.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between June 26, 12:00 PM ET and July 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a very low probability (1.05%) that the White House will post between 120-139 times on X from June 26 to July 3, 2026, suggesting skepticism about high activity during this period.
The White House could ramp up communication efforts due to a major policy announcement, crisis response, or election-year messaging, exceeding 120 posts to maintain public engagement and transparency.
The White House may reduce posting frequency due to a policy lull, staffing changes, or platform policy shifts (e.g., X's algorithm changes), resulting in fewer than 120 posts during the target period.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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