Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match forfeiture or default
Calibrated 100% · raw 950% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:30:52 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-9.5
Opportunity
8.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,115,726
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -950.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market refers to the Valorant match between MIR and Misa Esports in the VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 30 at 1:30PM ET. This market is decided solely by the total number of rounds played within Map 2 of this match (the combined round score of both teams on that single map), and is independent of which team wins Map 2 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Over" if the combined number of rounds played by both teams on Map 2, including any overtime, is greater than 21.5. This market will resolve to "Under" if the combined number of rounds played is less than 21.5. If the combined number of rounds played is exactly 21.5, this market will resolve 50-50. Map 2 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to "Over" or "Under". If Map 2 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round total regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 2 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 2 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (0.50%) that the total rounds in Map 2 of the MIR vs. Misa Esports Valorant match will exceed 21.5. The neutral baseline of 50% resolution under edge cases (e.g., forfeit) skews the market toward stability.
Map 2 could exceed 21.5 rounds if both teams engage in high-intensity, back-and-forth gameplay with frequent round wins, overtime scenarios, or prolonged stalemates. Teams with balanced compositions or strategic depth may prolong the match.
Map 2 is likely to resolve under 21.5 rounds if one team dominates early, leading to a swift victory (e.g., 13-0 or 13-2). Timeouts, tactical forfeits, or match disruptions (e.g., technical issues) could also truncate rounds.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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