Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Map 3 forfeiture or cancellation
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:45:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,451
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the Valorant match between Fennel and Insomnia in the VCL Japan Main Stage, initially scheduled for June 28 at 3:00AM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 3 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 3 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Fennel" if Fennel wins Map 3 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. Fennel's round total on Map 3 exceeds Insomnia's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Insomnia". Map 3 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 3 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 3 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 3 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Map 3 Handicap (Fennel -3.5 vs Insomnia +3.5) is marginally favoring Insomnia with a 50.50% probability, indicating a near-even split in expected outcomes. The resolution hinges on Fennel winning Map 3 by 4+ rounds, otherwise Insomnia wins the market.
Fennel's bull case relies on strong early-round performance, effective agent synergies, and map control, allowing them to exceed the -3.5 handicap by winning by 4+ rounds. Historical data shows Fennel's dominance in similar matchups, suggesting they could outperform expectations.
Insomnia's bear case hinges on Fennel failing to capitalize on early leads or suffering from coordination issues, leading to a closer-than-expected Map 3 result. Insomnia's resilience in high-pressure scenarios and potential adjustments could prevent Fennel from achieving the required 4-round margin.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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