Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential for match delays or cancellations affecting resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 4945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:15:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+49.5
Opportunity
37.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,015,860
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4945.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
2h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
14 points
This market refers to the Valorant match between Fennel and Insomnia in the VCL Japan Main Stage, initially scheduled for June 28 at 3:00AM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 1 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 1 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Fennel" if Fennel wins Map 1 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. Fennel's round total on Map 1 exceeds Insomnia's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Insomnia". Map 1 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 1 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 1 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 1 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Map 1 rounds handicap between Fennel (-3.5) and Insomnia (+3.5) is nearly balanced, with Fennel slightly favored at 49.50%. The outcome hinges on whether Fennel can secure a margin of 4 or more rounds in Map 1.
Fennel has a strong chance if they maintain consistent teamwork and execute strategies effectively, especially in early rounds. A dominant performance in pistol rounds or post-half adjustments could secure the required 4-round margin.
Insomnia could prevail if Fennel struggles with coordination, suffers from early round deficits, or fails to adapt to Insomnia's defensive strategies. A close match or overtime could prevent Fennel from achieving the 4-round margin.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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