Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Cuba’s ability to shield Diaz-Canel via diplomatic immunity or alliances
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:00:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,209,127
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
182d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assessing a US federal indictment of Cuban leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31, 2026, is evenly split at 50%, reflecting significant uncertainty. The outcome hinges on geopolitical tensions, US-Cuba relations, and legal precedents.
A US federal indictment could occur if Diaz-Canel is implicated in sanctions violations, human rights abuses, or drug trafficking, escalating diplomatic pressure. Political shifts in the US (e.g., hawkish administration) or Cuba (e.g., leadership instability) may increase the likelihood of aggressive legal action.
No indictment is likely if Diaz-Canel avoids direct involvement in provable crimes or if the US prioritizes diplomatic engagement over legal confrontation. Cuba’s strategic alliances (e.g., with China/Russia) may deter US action, and historical precedent favors non-prosecution of foreign leaders.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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