This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Key risk: Earnings report delays or omissions of TRASM metric
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:30:59 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is United Airlines' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
52%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for United Airlines' Q2 TRASM (19.5¢+) shows a slight bullish bias with 52% probability, reflecting moderate confidence in revenue performance above the threshold. The resolution hinges on official earnings materials by August 31, 2026, with strict adherence to reported metrics.
Strong domestic and international travel demand, particularly in premium cabins, could push TRASM above 19.5¢. Cost optimization and efficient capacity management may further support revenue per seat mile. Improved ancillary revenue streams, such as loyalty programs, could contribute positively.
Weakening travel demand, particularly in business or international segments, could suppress TRASM below 19.5¢. Rising fuel costs or operational inefficiencies may erode profitability. Competitive pressure from low-cost carriers could compress yields.
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United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 51.5% while ORYN AI estimates 52%.
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