Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains
Calibrated 100% · raw 1280% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:30:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 27% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
+12.8
Opportunity
9.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,272,485
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1260.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
28 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on July 6 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (23%) that Tesla (TSLA) will close above $450 on July 6, suggesting bearish sentiment. Key uncertainties stem from Tesla's recent volatility, broader market trends, and potential external shocks affecting stock performance.
Tesla could close above $450 if strong Q2 deliveries, bullish analyst upgrades, or favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed dovish pivot) drive investor optimism. A potential breakout in AI-related revenue or energy storage growth could also fuel upward momentum.
Tesla may fail to close above $450 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates) suppress growth stocks. Weak deliveries, regulatory hurdles, or competitive pressures in EVs could further dampen sentiment. A broader market downturn would likely weigh on TSLA.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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