Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-China trade relations, supply chain disruptions)
Calibrated 100% · raw 1245% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 2:30:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
15%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-12.4
Opportunity
11.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,350,278
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1245.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
15h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on June 29 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market shows a very low probability (2.50%) that Tesla (TSLA) will close above $400 on June 29. This reflects strong bearish sentiment, likely driven by recent price volatility and macroeconomic concerns.
Tesla could surge above $400 if it announces a breakthrough in AI-driven autonomous driving, secures a major new contract (e.g., with a government or large corporation), or benefits from a broad market rally in tech stocks. Positive earnings guidance or cost-cutting measures could also fuel a price surge.
Tesla may fail to reach $400 due to persistent macroeconomic headwinds, such as high interest rates dampening consumer demand, supply chain disruptions, or increased competition in the EV market. Regulatory challenges or negative sentiment around Elon Musk’s leadership could further pressure the stock.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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