Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Trading halts or disruptions near the close on June 30
Calibrated 100% · raw 4405% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 2:01:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
96%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-44.0
Opportunity
28.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4405.0¢
Entry: 93-99
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
83 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on June 30 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tesla (TSLA) closing above $390 on June 30 shows a slight bullish bias at 51.50%, indicating a near-even probability of surpassing the threshold. The resolution is contingent on Yahoo Finance's official closing price, with adjustments for corporate actions or trading disruptions.
Tesla's stock could close above $390 if it benefits from strong Q2 deliveries, favorable regulatory news, or broader market tailwinds in the EV sector. Additionally, momentum from recent earnings beats or analyst upgrades may push the price higher. A sustained uptrend in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq could also provide support.
Tesla may fail to close above $390 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., rising interest rates, recession fears) dampen investor sentiment. Weak Q2 deliveries, regulatory setbacks, or competitive pressures in the EV market could also weigh on the stock. A broader market downturn could further pressure TSLA.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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