Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected macroeconomic shocks (e.g., geopolitical tensions, inflation spikes)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 10:32:47 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tesla (TSLA) closing above $355 by June 29 reflects a balanced 50% probability, indicating significant uncertainty driven by near-term volatility factors. The outcome hinges on Tesla's stock performance amid macroeconomic conditions, production updates, and market sentiment.
Tesla could exceed $355 if it reports strong Q2 deliveries, surpasses earnings expectations, or benefits from a broader tech rally. Positive regulatory news (e.g., FSD approvals) or AI-related breakthroughs may also boost investor confidence. A weaker USD or Fed dovish signals could further support the stock.
Tesla may fail to surpass $355 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates) dampen demand for growth stocks. Supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, or negative regulatory actions (e.g., tariffs, safety recalls) could weigh on the stock. A broader market downturn would also pressure TSLA.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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