Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low liquidity post-launch reducing FDV
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:32:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 20% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
24%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 21-27
—
Resolution
498d
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects skepticism about Relay's governance token achieving a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $1.2B within one day of launch, with current odds at 24.40%. Resolution hinges on active token transferability and liquidity metrics.
Relay's token launch could exceed $1.2B FDV if the protocol demonstrates strong adoption, high liquidity, and favorable tokenomics, coupled with robust market sentiment and speculative demand during the launch window.
A bearish outcome is likely if Relay's token launch underperforms due to low liquidity, weak adoption, unfavorable tokenomics, or broader market downturns, leading to an FDV below $1.2B by the resolution time.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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