Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data tracker reliability or resolution disputes
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:02 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.6
Opportunity
0.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 60.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
23 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between June 19, 12:00 PM ET and June 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an extremely low probability (~0.45%) that NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani will post between 140-159 times on X from June 19-26, 2026. Historical data suggests such high posting frequency is unsustainable, aligning with the negligible market confidence.
A bullish outcome could occur if Mamdani launches a high-profile campaign or faces a major crisis requiring frequent updates, driving posts to the 140-159 range. Viral engagement or a strategic social media push might also justify the upper bound.
The bear case reflects Mamdani's typical posting cadence (historically ~1-3 daily posts) and the impracticality of maintaining 20+ posts/day for a week. External factors like platform restrictions or personal time constraints further reduce likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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