This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) on June 26 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Key risk: Regulatory or geopolitical risks affecting semiconductor supply chains
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:45:58 PM
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) on June 26 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates an extremely low probability (2.50%) that NVIDIA (NVDA) will close above $205 on June 26, reflecting minimal market confidence in this outcome. Given NVIDIA's historical volatility and recent trends, the near-term outlook for such a price level appears unfavorable.
NVIDIA could close above $205 if it experiences a significant positive earnings surprise, strong AI-related demand surge, or favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g., lower interest rates) that boost tech stocks. A sector-wide rally or a new product announcement could also drive the price above the threshold.
NVIDIA is unlikely to close above $205 due to potential profit-taking after recent rallies, regulatory risks (e.g., U.S.-China tech tensions), or weaker-than-expected demand for AI chips. A broader market downturn or negative earnings guidance could further suppress the stock price.
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Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 2.5% while ORYN AI estimates 2.5%.
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