Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Earnings miss or weak guidance
Calibrated 100% · raw 4000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:16:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
90%
Signal Score
+40.0
Opportunity
30.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,423,831
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) on July 2 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
NVIDIA's stock (NVDA) has a 50% probability of closing above $195 on July 2, reflecting high uncertainty driven by AI sector dynamics and macroeconomic factors. The market is balanced, with no clear directional bias at present.
NVIDIA could close above $195 if strong Q2 earnings (released mid-July) or AI demand trends provide upward momentum. Positive sentiment around AI infrastructure investments or a favorable Fed policy shift could also propel the stock higher.
NVIDIA may fail to close above $195 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates) dampen tech valuations. Weak AI sector performance or regulatory concerns could also drag the stock down.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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