Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High potential for AI-generated or manipulated media
Calibrated 100% · raw 2000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 6:00:56 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
30%
Signal Score
-20.0
Opportunity
14.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,105,920
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
180d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assessing Mojtaba Khamenei's public appearance by December 31 is at 50%, reflecting balanced uncertainty. Authenticity and timing constraints introduce significant ambiguity, while geopolitical opacity around Iran's leadership further complicates resolution.
Mojtaba Khamenei appears in a high-profile public event (e.g., religious ceremony, state function) captured by media or independent observers. Digital broadcasts or official state media coverage could provide verifiable footage, meeting market criteria.
No authentic public appearances occur, or any released media is deemed inauthentic (AI-generated, staged, or archival). Iran's leadership may suppress or tightly control visual evidence, leaving no verifiable footage by the deadline.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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