Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Pitcher injuries or fatigue
Calibrated 100% · raw 4995% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:31:37 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+50.0
Opportunity
32.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4995.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for June 26 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles is winning the game by 2 or more runs at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington Nationals". If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Washington Nationals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Baltimore Orioles to win by 2+ runs after 5 innings is evenly split at 50%, indicating no clear favorite. The outcome hinges on early-game performance, with both teams having roughly equal chances of leading at the midpoint.
The Orioles could dominate early innings due to strong offensive production (e.g., home runs) or pitching dominance, securing a 2+ run lead by the 5th inning. Historical trends favoring the Orioles in early-game spreads also support this scenario.
The Nationals may overcome the spread if they leverage bullpen strength or capitalize on Orioles' defensive errors, leading to a tied or losing position after 5 innings. Poor Orioles' starting pitching could exacerbate this risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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