Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_innings_early_lead
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:45:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
-4.5
Opportunity
3.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,028,068
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -450.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
3h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for June 30 at 7:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays is winning the game by 3 or more runs at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals". If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 23% chance of winning by 3+ runs by the 5th inning against the Kansas City Royals, indicating a low probability of a dominant early lead. The market favors the Royals in this scenario, reflecting skepticism about the Rays' ability to secure a substantial early advantage.
The Rays' strong starting pitching (e.g., Shane McClanahan) and offensive depth could generate a 3+ run lead by the 5th inning, especially if the Royals' offense struggles against Tampa's pitching staff. A high-scoring early game with Rays hitting first could tilt the odds in their favor.
The Royals' ability to neutralize the Rays' offense and their own offensive potential (e.g., Bobby Witt Jr.'s power) could prevent a 3+ run deficit by the 5th inning. Tampa's bullpen reliance early in the game may also mitigate their lead-building chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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