Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Postponement or cancellation of the game
Calibrated 100% · raw 4950% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 3:15:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 25% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
-49.5
Opportunity
37.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,769,543
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4950.0¢
Entry: 96-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for June 29 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game by 2 or more runs at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants". If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the 1st 5 innings spread (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5) shows an even 50% probability, indicating no clear favorite in the early game outcome. The resolution hinges on a 2+ run lead for Arizona by the 5th inning, with ties or Giants leads defaulting to the Giants.
Arizona Diamondbacks' bull case relies on strong offensive production early, particularly from key hitters like Corbin Carroll or Ketel Marte, to build a 2+ run lead by the 5th inning. Pitching depth, including Zac Gallen's performance in the first 5 innings, could also suppress the Giants' scoring.
The Giants' bear case centers on Arizona's potential struggles against San Francisco's pitching staff, particularly if Logan Webb or Alex Cobb limits Diamondbacks' run production in the early innings. Defensive errors or slow offensive starts could prevent Arizona from securing the required 2-run lead.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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