Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Pitcher fatigue or injuries (late roster changes)
Calibrated 100% · raw 2350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:16:11 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
27%
Signal Score
-23.5
Opportunity
16.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,115,726
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2350.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
14 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for June 30 at 8:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game by 2 or more runs at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs". If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The San Diego Padres have a 26.50% probability of leading by 2+ runs after the 5th inning against the Chicago Cubs. This suggests a slight underdog position, with the Cubs favored to either lead, trail by 1, or be tied after the first 5 innings.
The Padres' strong offensive lineup, particularly with key hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, could outpace the Cubs' pitching staff early. A favorable matchup against a Cubs bullpen that has struggled with inherited runners may also favor San Diego.
The Cubs' starting pitcher, likely Justin Steele or another reliable arm, could stifle the Padres' offense, while San Diego's pitching staff may struggle against Chicago's aggressive lineup. Late-game collapses by the Padres in similar spread markets also pose a risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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