Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Game postponement or cancellation
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:00:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,834,265
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros, scheduled for June 30 at 8:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Christian Walker records more than 0.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Christian Walker records less than 0.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Christian Walker's home runs in the Twins vs. Astros game is evenly split, with a 50% probability for both Over and Under 0.5 home runs. The outcome hinges on Walker's participation and performance, given his historically low home run rate.
Walker records a home run, pushing the market to 'Over' 0.5. This could occur if he benefits from favorable pitching or ballpark factors at Target Field or Minute Maid Park, despite his modest career home run rate.
Walker does not record a home run, resolving the market to 'Under' 0.5. This is likely given his career average of 0.1 home runs per game and the high variability of single-game home run outcomes.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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