Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: The inherent statistical improbability of any player hitting 2+ home runs in a single game.
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:03:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| gemini | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,835,582
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
13h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 30 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Amed Rosario records more than 1.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Amed Rosario records less than 1.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market assesses the probability of Amed Rosario hitting over 1.5 home runs in a single MLB game. The market's current probability stands at 50%, which appears to be a significant mispricing given the extreme statistical rarity of a player achieving two or more home runs in a single professional baseball game. The overwhelming likelihood is that Rosario will hit fewer than two home runs.
The 'Over' case relies on an exceptionally rare and outlier performance from Amed Rosario, potentially driven by facing a particularly vulnerable pitcher with a high home run rate in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Factors such as strong recent power hitting form, a favorable batting slot providing multiple plate appearances, or significant wind assistance could marginally increase the minute odds of this outcome.
The 'Under' case is overwhelmingly probable, as multi-home run games are exceedingly rare events for any MLB player, let alone one with Rosario's career power profile. Rosario's career statistics and the general statistical distribution of home runs in MLB games strongly suggest he will record zero or one home run in the specified game, making the 'Under' the statistically dominant outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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