Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution ambiguity
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:19:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,664,885
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 29 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Ben Malgeri records more than 0.5 home runs during the game. This market will resolve to "Under" if Ben Malgeri records less than 0.5 home runs during the game. The entire game including all extra innings will be considered. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the field at any point, the market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Ben Malgeri's home runs O/U 0.5 in the Tigers vs. Yankees game on June 29 is evenly split at 50%, reflecting uncertainty due to Malgeri's limited MLB experience and the game's high-scoring context. The resolution hinges on Malgeri's participation and performance, with low probability of multiple home runs given his role as a reliever.
Malgeri could exceed 0.5 home runs if he enters the game with favorable matchups (e.g., facing a pitcher with low home run suppression) or if the game becomes a high-scoring blowout, increasing his opportunity to bat. His recent minor league performance or a rare power surge could also drive the outcome.
Malgeri is unlikely to hit a home run given his reliever role (low at-bat probability) and the 0.5 threshold requiring at least one home run. If he does not pitch or is removed early, the market resolves to
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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