Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: limited historical data for 2026 (reliance on past trends)
Calibrated 100% · raw 750% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:30:41 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
+7.5
Opportunity
6.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,563,832
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 750.0¢
Entry: 11-16
—
Resolution
20h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 21% probability that Shanghai's lowest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 23°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for late June in Shanghai. This is significantly below the climatological average of ~20°C for daily minimum temperatures, suggesting low likelihood.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unexpected heatwave or urban heat island effect pushes temperatures above 22°C, with persistence into the evening. Unusually high humidity or cloud cover reducing nighttime cooling could also contribute to a higher minimum temperature.
The bear case assumes typical late-June weather patterns, with temperatures unlikely to exceed 20-22°C overnight. Persistent cloud cover or rainfall could suppress temperatures further, making 23°C an outlier. Historical data shows Shanghai's June minima rarely exceed 21°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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