This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:01:52 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
39%
ORYN Consensus
39%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Seoul recording a low temperature of 21°C on June 29, 2026 is 39%, indicating a moderate likelihood. Historical data suggests this is an unusually high temperature for late June, making this a non-trivial prediction.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a strong high-pressure system or heat dome settles over the Korean Peninsula, bringing unseasonably warm air from southern China or the Pacific. Persistent southerly winds and clear skies could elevate overnight lows significantly. Climate change trends may also contribute to warmer baseline temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical averages, as late June lows in Seoul typically range between 16-19°C. Unusual weather patterns such as a cold front, increased cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress temperatures. Additionally, the urban heat island effect in Seoul may not elevate overnight lows to 21°C.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 39% while ORYN AI estimates 39%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
