This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting beyond 7-10 days
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:50 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
+5.2
Opportunity
4.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 7.5% probability that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 18°C, based on historical climatological data and seasonal trends for late June in the region. Historical records and climate norms suggest this is an outlier scenario for the date.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusual weather pattern, such as a strong warm air advection from southern China or Japan, or a heat dome event, pushes temperatures significantly above seasonal averages. Persistent high-pressure systems and urban heat island effects in Seoul could also contribute to higher minimum temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Seoul's late June climate, where average minimum temperatures typically range between 16-20°C, with 18°C being within the normal range but not a common extreme. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or maritime air intrusions could suppress temperatures below 18°C.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 2.4% while ORYN AI estimates 7.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
