This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate change-induced warming trends may slightly increase baseline temperatures
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:45:44 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
24%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (23.50%) that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 22°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, as June typically sees average lows around 19-20°C.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave or tropical system pushes temperatures significantly higher than normal. Unseasonable weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or warm air advection from the Pacific, could support temperatures reaching 22°C.
The bear case hinges on typical June climatology, where Seoul's lows rarely exceed 21°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses from Siberia or the Sea of Japan would suppress temperatures below 22°C.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 23.5% while ORYN AI estimates 23.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
