Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced warming trends may slightly increase baseline temperatures
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:45:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
24%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 20-26
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
21 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (23.50%) that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 22°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, as June typically sees average lows around 19-20°C.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave or tropical system pushes temperatures significantly higher than normal. Unseasonable weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or warm air advection from the Pacific, could support temperatures reaching 22°C.
The bear case hinges on typical June climatology, where Seoul's lows rarely exceed 21°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses from Siberia or the Sea of Japan would suppress temperatures below 22°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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