Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 7/2/2026, 7:30:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 35% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
30%
ORYN Consensus
30%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,734,105
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 27-33
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 30% chance that Seoul's lowest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach 23°C, based on historical temperature data from Incheon International Airport. This forecast relies on probabilistic modeling of seasonal climate patterns and regional weather trends.
A bullish scenario suggests a 23°C low is plausible due to potential heatwave conditions in East Asia during summer 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or El Niño effects. Unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Northwest Pacific could also contribute to elevated nighttime temperatures.
A bearish scenario argues that 23°C is unlikely, as Seoul's historical July lows average around 20-22°C, with extreme highs rarely exceeding 24°C. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures or monsoon disruptions could suppress nighttime temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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